14 de abril de 2008

El desempeño económico en América Latina

A propósito de la reunión anual del Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo (BID) que se celebró en la ciudad de Miami hace algunos días, el último número de la revista británica THE ECONOMIST evalúa las perspectivas de crecimiento en la región.

Aquí encuentras el artículo.

Del artículo resalto los siguientes párrafos:

... Are such hopes justified? Latin America is doing better than at any time since the 1960s. Economic growth has averaged over 5% a year since 2004, inflation has been generally low, direct investment is arriving in record quantities, and the region's current account and fiscal accounts are both in surplus. Of course the average conceals wide (and widening) variations. But to the surprise of some, the credit crunch has so far had little discernible effect. Indeed, as world prices for many of Latin America's key commodity exports continue to rise, the pace of growth has even accelerated in some countries...

... But strains and anxieties are starting to emerge. Higher world prices for energy and food mean that inflation is edging up. That is testing the policy regime (of inflation targets and flexible exchange rates) that has underpinned the achievement of price stability in many countries over the past decade. Several central banks, including those of Chile and Colombia, have missed their inflation targets. Some have begun to tighten interest rates...

...The real worry is 2009. A prolonged recession in the United States would be costly for Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean; they would receive less in remittances from migrants and fewer tourists, as well as exporting less. Since that kind of slump would prompt slower growth in Europe and Asia, prices for many commodities would fall, hitting South America too. In such a situation, capital flows to Latin America would almost certainly diminish...

Por cierto, el mismo número de THE ECONOMIST, contiene un artículo interesante sobre la reforma al sector petrolero en nuestro país.

Aquí lo puedes consultar.