22 de agosto de 2011

Una alerta (con casi un año de antiguedad) sobre el problema de deuda en varios países europeos

¿Nadie sabía que el modelo de algunos países europeos era insostenible?

Hace casi un año, Arnaud Mares, analista de Morgan Stanley, publicó un texto titulado ASK NOT WHETHER GOVERNMENTS WILL DEFAULT, BUT HOW. Aquí lo encuentras.

Aquí el párrafo inicial:

The sovereign debt crisis is not European: it is global. And it is not over. The European sovereign debt crisis of spring 2010 was a misnomer in more ways than one: there was not one crisis but two. And it will continue well beyond 2010, in our view. The first crisis was, and remains, an institutional crisis of the euro, caused by a flawed multilateral fiscal surveillance framework. Steps have been taken towards a correction of the flaws with a move from peer pressure to peer control of fiscal policy. This is reflected by the acceptance by the Greek, Spanish and Portuguese governments of fiscal measures largely dictated from Berlin and Brussels. The second crisis was, and remains, a sovereign debt crisis: a crisis caused by sovereign balance sheets being overstretched, to the point where insolvency ceases to be merely possible and becomes plausible. This crisis is not limited to the periphery of Europe. It is a global crisis and it is far from over. We take a high-level perspective on the state of government balance sheets and conclude that debt holders have to be prepared to enter an age of ‘financial oppression'.

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